DRAM and NAND prices could finally drop in 2028 — but they'll get much worse first

Analysts at Bernstein have put out financial projections for SK hynix that paint a grim picture for the next two years — and a cautiously hopeful one for 2028. The short version: memory prices are going up before they come down, and PC builders should brace for that reality.

Bernstein forecasts SK hynix's DRAM gross margin hitting 90.9% in Q2 2026 and climbing to 92.7% by Q4 2026. The average selling price per GB is expected to reach $1.85 — already more than three times 2025 levels. It gets worse from there: Bernstein sees DRAM peaking at $2.23 per GB by end of 2027, with a gross margin of 94%, nearly five times what consumers were paying in 2025. NAND follows a similar trajectory, with prices projected to hit $0.32 per GB by late 2027. Then, according to Bernstein, 2028 brings relief — DRAM ASP is forecast to fall to $1.05 per GB (a 50%-plus drop year-over-year) and NAND to $0.10 per GB. SK hynix's gross margin would still sit at a healthy 86.4%, so this isn't a collapse — just a correction.

SK hynix is one of the three dominant memory manufacturers alongside Samsung and Micron, and all three are navigating a market where AI infrastructure demand has massively outpaced supply. SK hynix has committed over $60 billion to new chip plants in South Korea and is targeting triple its current output by 2034 — but both SK hynix and Samsung have signaled they'll ramp production gradually to avoid oversupply risk. That cautious approach is exactly why prices stay elevated: factories take years to build, and these companies have little incentive to flood a market that's currently printing money for them.

Even if supply does catch up with demand by 2028, there's no guarantee prices drop sharply or quickly — gradual declines are more likely than a sudden crash. Wild cards include whether AI infrastructure spending keeps accelerating and how the next generation of Sony and Microsoft consoles affects consumer memory demand. Bernstein's projections are analyst estimates, not guarantees, and the specifics — especially a 50%-plus single-year drop — are ambitious enough to treat with some skepticism.